{"id":8516,"date":"2025-05-14T13:15:03","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T18:15:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/?post_type=tribe_events&#038;p=8516"},"modified":"2026-04-29T08:24:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T13:24:00","slug":"seminar-21-may-probabilistic-assessment-of-thaw-settlement-in-permafrost-terrain-under-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"tribe_events","link":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/event\/seminar-21-may-probabilistic-assessment-of-thaw-settlement-in-permafrost-terrain-under-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Seminar &#8211; 21 May\u201a Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change."},"content":{"rendered":"<div  class=\"tribe-events-schedule tribe-clearfix\" >\n\t<p class=\"tribe-events-schedule__datetime\">\n\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-schedule__date tribe-events-schedule__date--start\">\n\t\t\tmai 21, 2025\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-schedule__separator tribe-events-schedule__separator--date\">\n\t\t\t\t @ \t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-schedule__time tribe-events-schedule__time--start\">\n\t\t\t\t1:00 pm\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-schedule__separator tribe-events-schedule__separator--time\">\n\t\t\t\t\t &#8211; \t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-schedule__time tribe-events-schedule__time--end\">\n\t\t\t\t\t2:00 pm\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-schedule__timezone\">UTC-5<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"tribe-events-event-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"904\" src=\"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper.png\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-post-image\" alt=\"Infographic on thaw settlement in arctic road embankments using probabilistic methods, showing introduction, probability distributions, comparison of thaw depth, serviceability analysis, and optimization analysis with labeled graphs.\" srcset=\"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper.png 1920w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-1024x482.png 1024w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-768x362.png 768w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-1536x723.png 1536w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-18x8.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/div>\n\n\n<p>Date: Wednesday&nbsp;<strong>21 May&nbsp;<\/strong>2025<br>Time: 1pm Eastern Time \/ 11am Mountain Time<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/people\/khatereh-roghangar\/\">Khatereh Roghangar<\/a>\u00a0will be presenting\u00a0Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Zoom details for all our seminars will be posted in our Teams site.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This presentation introduces a probabilistic methodology to assess thaw settlement in permafrost terrain under climate change, addressing the limitations of traditional deterministic models that overlook uncertainties in soil properties and climate projections. Using thermal modeling (TEMP\/W) and Monte Carlo simulations, the study developed a custom Python tool to evaluate thaw settlement, serviceability, and optimized maintenance strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Applied to real-world cases, the Hudson Bay Railway and Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway, the results highlight the growing variability in thaw behaviour over time and the critical role of embankment thickness in performance. By integrating probabilistic analysis into infrastructure design, this work enables more resilient and cost-effective planning for cold regions affected by permafrost degradation.<\/p>\n\n\n\t<div  class=\"tribe-block tribe-block__events-link\" >\n\t\t<div class=\"tribe-events tribe-common\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__container\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tribe-common-c-btn-border tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__button\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg\n\t class=\"tribe-common-c-svgicon tribe-common-c-svgicon--cal-export tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__export-icon\" \taria-hidden=\"true\"\n\tviewbox=\"0 0 23 17\"\n\txmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"\n>\n\t<path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M.128.896V16.13c0 .211.145.383.323.383h15.354c.179 0 .323-.172.323-.383V.896c0-.212-.144-.383-.323-.383H.451C.273.513.128.684.128.896Zm16 6.742h-.901V4.679H1.009v10.729h14.218v-3.336h.901V7.638ZM1.01 1.614h14.218v2.058H1.009V1.614Z\" \/>\n\t<path d=\"M20.5 9.846H8.312M18.524 6.953l2.89 2.909-2.855 2.855\" stroke-width=\"1.2\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<button\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tclass=\"tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__button-text\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\taria-expanded=\"false\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\taria-controls=\"tribe-events-subscribe-dropdown-content\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\taria-label=\"View links to add events to your calendar\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAjouter au calendrier\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/button>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<svg\n\t class=\"tribe-common-c-svgicon tribe-common-c-svgicon--caret-down tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__button-icon\" \taria-hidden=\"true\"\n\tviewbox=\"0 0 10 7\"\n\txmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"\n>\n\t<path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M1.008.609L5 4.6 8.992.61l.958.958L5 6.517.05 1.566l.958-.958z\" class=\"tribe-common-c-svgicon__svg-fill\"\/>\n<\/svg>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"tribe-events-subscribe-dropdown-content\" class=\"tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul class=\"tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__list\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__list-item tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__list-item--gcal\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\thref=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/calendar\/event?action=TEMPLATE&#038;dates=20250521T130000\/20250521T140000&#038;text=Seminar%20%26%238211%3B%2021%20May%E2%80%9A%20Probabilistic%20Assessment%20of%20Thaw%20Settlement%20in%20Permafrost%20Terrain%20Under%20Climate%20Change.&#038;details=%3Cp%3EDate%3A+Wednesday%26nbsp%3B%3Cstrong%3E21+May%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fstrong%3E2025%3Cbr+%2F%3ETime%3A+1pm+Eastern+Time+%2F+11am+Mountain+Time%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E%3Ca+href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fpermafrostnet.ca%2Fpeople%2Fkhatereh-roghangar%2F%22%3EKhatereh+Roghangar%3C%2Fa%3E%C2%A0will+be+presenting%C2%A0Probabilistic+Assessment+of+Thaw+Settlement+in+Permafrost+Terrain+Under+Climate+Change.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EZoom+details+for+all+our+seminars+will+be+posted+in+our+Teams+site.%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EThis+presentation+introduces+a+probabilistic+methodology+to+assess+thaw+settlement+in+permafrost+terrain+under+climate+change%2C+addressing+the+limitations+of+traditional+deterministic+models+that+overlook+uncertainties+in+soil+properties+and+climate+projections.+Using+thermal+modeling+%28TEMP%2FW%29+and+Monte+Carlo+simulations%2C+the+study+developed+a+custom+Python+tool+to+evaluate+thaw+settlement%2C+serviceability%2C+and+optimized+maintenance+strategies.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EApplied+to+real-world+cases%2C+the+Hudson+Bay+Railway+and+Inuvik+to+Tuktoyaktuk+Highway%2C+the+results+highlight+the+gro%3C%2Fp%3E+%28View+Full+%C3%A9v%C3%A8nement+Description+Here%3A+https%3A%2F%2Fpermafrostnet.ca%2Ffr%2Fevent%2Fseminar-21-may-probabilistic-assessment-of-thaw-settlement-in-permafrost-terrain-under-climate-change%2F%29&#038;location=Zoom&#038;trp=false&#038;ctz=UTC-5&#038;sprop=website:https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tclass=\"tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__list-item-link\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\ttarget=\"_blank\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\trel=\"noopener 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noindex\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOutlook 365\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__list-item tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__list-item--outlook-live\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\thref=\"\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tclass=\"tribe-events-c-subscribe-dropdown__list-item-link\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\ttarget=\"_blank\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\trel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow noindex\"\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOutlook Live\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div  class=\"tribe-events-single-section tribe-events-event-meta primary tribe-clearfix\" >\n\t\n\t\n<div class=\"tribe-events-meta-group tribe-events-meta-group-details\">\n\t<h3 class=\"tribe-events-single-section-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\tD\u00e9tails\t\t\n\t<\/h3>\n\t<ul class=\"tribe-events-meta-list\">\n\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<li class=\"tribe-events-meta-item\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-meta-label\">Date :<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-meta-value\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<abbr class=\"tribe-events-abbr tribe-events-start-date published dtstart\" title=\"2025-05-21\"> mai 21, 2025 <\/abbr>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/li>\n\n\t\t\t<li class=\"tribe-events-meta-item\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-meta-label\">Heure :<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-meta-value\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"tribe-events-abbr tribe-events-start-time published dtstart\" title=\"2025-05-21\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t1:00 pm &#8211; 2:00 pm\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"tribe-events-abbr tribe-events-time-zone published\">UTC-5<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/li>\n\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\t\n\t<\/div>\n\n\n<div  class=\"tribe-block tribe-block__venue tribe-clearfix tribe-block__venue--has-map\" >\n\t\n\t\n<div class=\"tribe-block__venue__meta\">\n\t<div class=\"tribe-block__venue__name\">\n\t\t<h3>Zoom<\/h3>\n\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t<\/div>\n\t\n\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Date: Wednesday&nbsp;21 May&nbsp;2025Time: 1pm Eastern Time \/ 11am Mountain Time Khatereh Roghangar\u00a0will be presenting\u00a0Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change. Zoom details for all our seminars will be posted in our Teams site. This presentation introduces a probabilistic methodology to assess thaw settlement in permafrost terrain [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":8514,"template":"","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"UTC-5","_EventStartDate":"2025-05-21 13:00:00","_EventEndDate":"2025-05-21 14:00:00","_EventStartDateUTC":"2025-05-21 17:00:00","_EventEndDateUTC":"2025-05-21 18:00:00","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"prefix","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[3454],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"_tribe_events_status":"","_tribe_events_status_reason":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"tribe_events_cat":[],"class_list":["post-8516","tribe_events","type-tribe_events","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Seminar - 21 May\u201a Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change. &#8211; PermafrostNet<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/event\/seminar-21-may-probabilistic-assessment-of-thaw-settlement-in-permafrost-terrain-under-climate-change\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Seminar - 21 May\u201a Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change. &#8211; PermafrostNet\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Date: Wednesday&nbsp;21 May&nbsp;2025Time: 1pm Eastern Time \/ 11am Mountain Time Khatereh Roghangar\u00a0will be presenting\u00a0Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change. Zoom details for all our seminars will be posted in our Teams site. 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