{"id":8511,"date":"2025-05-14T11:06:53","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T16:06:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/?p=8511"},"modified":"2026-06-26T04:17:30","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T09:17:30","slug":"seminar-21-may-probabilistic-assessment-of-thaw-settlement-in-permafrost-terrain-under-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/news\/seminar-21-may-probabilistic-assessment-of-thaw-settlement-in-permafrost-terrain-under-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Seminar &#8211; 21 May &#8211; Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change."},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/people\/khatereh-roghangar\/\">Khatereh Roghangar<\/a> will be presenting<em> Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change<\/em>.<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"margin: 0cm; font-size: 12pt; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, serif; white-space-collapse: collapse;\"><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Date:<strong>\u00a021 May\u00a02025<\/strong><br>Time:<strong>\u00a013:00-14:00<\/strong>\u00a0Eastern Time<br>Location: Zoom (details are posted in our Teams site).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This presentation introduces a probabilistic methodology to assess thaw settlement in permafrost terrain under climate change, addressing the limitations of traditional deterministic models that overlook uncertainties in soil properties and climate projections. Using thermal modeling (TEMP\/W) and Monte Carlo simulations, the study developed a custom Python tool to evaluate thaw settlement, serviceability, and optimized maintenance strategies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Applied to real-world cases, the Hudson Bay Railway and Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway, the results highlight the growing variability in thaw behaviour over time and the critical role of embankment thickness in performance. By integrating probabilistic analysis into infrastructure design, this work enables more resilient and cost-effective planning for cold regions affected by permafrost degradation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1920\" src=\"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/DSC_71261.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8513\" srcset=\"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/DSC_71261.jpg 1920w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/DSC_71261-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/DSC_71261-1024x1024.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/DSC_71261-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/DSC_71261-768x768.jpg 768w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/DSC_71261-1536x1536.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/DSC_71261-12x12.jpg 12w, https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/DSC_71261-45x45.jpg 45w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Khatereh Roghangar will be presenting Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change. Date:\u00a021 May\u00a02025Time:\u00a013:00-14:00\u00a0Eastern TimeLocation: Zoom (details are posted in our Teams site). This presentation introduces a probabilistic methodology to assess thaw settlement in permafrost terrain under climate change, addressing the limitations of traditional deterministic models [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":8514,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,91],"tags":[90],"class_list":["post-8511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-seminar","tag-seminars"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Seminar - 21 May - Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change. &#8211; PermafrostNet<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/news\/seminar-21-may-probabilistic-assessment-of-thaw-settlement-in-permafrost-terrain-under-climate-change\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Seminar - 21 May - Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change. &#8211; PermafrostNet\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Khatereh Roghangar will be presenting Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change. Date:\u00a021 May\u00a02025Time:\u00a013:00-14:00\u00a0Eastern TimeLocation: Zoom (details are posted in our Teams site). This presentation introduces a probabilistic methodology to assess thaw settlement in permafrost terrain under climate change, addressing the limitations of traditional deterministic models [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/news\/seminar-21-may-probabilistic-assessment-of-thaw-settlement-in-permafrost-terrain-under-climate-change\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"PermafrostNet\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-14T16:06:53+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-06-26T09:17:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"904\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Tristan MacLean\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@PermafrostNet\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@PermafrostNet\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Tristan MacLean\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Estimation du temps de lecture\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.permafrostnet.ca\\\/news\\\/seminar-21-may-probabilistic-assessment-of-thaw-settlement-in-permafrost-terrain-under-climate-change\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.permafrostnet.ca\\\/news\\\/seminar-21-may-probabilistic-assessment-of-thaw-settlement-in-permafrost-terrain-under-climate-change\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Tristan MacLean\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.permafrostnet.ca\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/70e67e64ed65de9f0559f2a871467859\"},\"headline\":\"Seminar &#8211; 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21 May &#8211; Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change."}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/","name":"PermafrostNet","description":"NSERC Permafrost Partnership Network for Canada","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"fr-CA"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/#organization","name":"PermafrostNet CRSNG","url":"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-CA","@id":"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Permafrost_logo_4color_stack_transparency.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Permafrost_logo_4color_stack_transparency.png","width":819,"height":535,"caption":"NSERC PermafrostNet"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/x.com\/PermafrostNet","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/permafrostnet\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/permafrostnet\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.permafrostnet.ca\/#\/schema\/person\/70e67e64ed65de9f0559f2a871467859","name":"Tristan MacLean","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-CA","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0e0cfa7853da0058567550301d790fd7ac896099b1ec0e6b5d4d008a60bf42bf?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0e0cfa7853da0058567550301d790fd7ac896099b1ec0e6b5d4d008a60bf42bf?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/0e0cfa7853da0058567550301d790fd7ac896099b1ec0e6b5d4d008a60bf42bf?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Tristan MacLean"},"url":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/author\/tristan\/"}]}},"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper.png",1920,904,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-300x141.png",300,141,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-768x362.png",750,354,true],"large":["https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-1024x482.png",750,353,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-1536x723.png",1536,723,true],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper.png",1920,904,false],"trp-custom-language-flag":["https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-18x8.png",18,8,true],"hestia-blog":["https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Graphical-abstract-for-ITH-paper-360x240.png",360,240,true]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Tristan MacLean","author_link":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/author\/tristan\/"},"uagb_comment_info":48,"uagb_excerpt":"Khatereh Roghangar will be presenting Probabilistic Assessment of Thaw Settlement in Permafrost Terrain Under Climate Change. Date:\u00a021 May\u00a02025Time:\u00a013:00-14:00\u00a0Eastern TimeLocation: Zoom (details are posted in our Teams site). This presentation introduces a probabilistic methodology to assess thaw settlement in permafrost terrain under climate change, addressing the limitations of traditional deterministic models [&hellip;]","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8511"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8511\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8515,"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8511\/revisions\/8515"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8514"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/permafrostnet.ca\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}